China’s HDPE capacity is due to  increase by 22% this year. A further 10% increase is scheduled for 2023. World-scale plants are also due on-stream in Malaysia and Vietnam this year and in 2023.

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The manikin developed by Thielen is especially meant for hospitals of developing countries, where most of the premature births occur.  ‘As such’, he explains, ‘affordability is one of the biggest prerequisites’. The first prototype of Thielen, now developed at a cost of approximately 5000 euros, is slightly more expensive than its simpler and purely mechanic alternatives. Yet, it still represents a cheap alternative to very sophisticated manikins, which could costs up to 50.000 euros. And, Thielen is already thinking of short term solutions to cut down the costs even further. Thielen: ‘Nowadays, the shipping of products worldwide is common practice. I am dreaming of my 3D printed baby being borrowed all over the world, wherever needed, and at a much cheaper, rental price’.

When manikins look like dolls, the trainees can be easily distracted and lose their concentration, rendering the training less efficient

The resistance and flexibility of the heart and rib cage are measured in the new manikin and compared to real babies and rabbits, which are comparable in anatomy and size. For Sidarto Bambang Oetomo, pediatrician in neonatology specialized in innovations for premature babies who has for long worked at the Maxima MC of Veldhoven and as a part-time professor at TU/e,  the new manikin is a big step towards realistic behavior, which can ‘improve the quality of the resuscitation training’. ‘When manikins look like dolls’, he explains, ‘the trainees can be easily distracted and lose their concentration, rendering the training less efficient’. Doctors and nurses from Maxima MC who participated in a sensory study also indicated that the realistic sensory value during the resuscitation of the new manikin was much higher than with current manikins.

Researcher Mark Thielen (Industrial Design) from the Eindhoven University of Technology (TU/e) developed a 3D printed baby dummy, based on an MRI scan of a real newborn baby. The manikin is made of 3D printed organs and chest bones, and a mock circulatory system. For the neonatologists of the Maxima MC of Veldhoven, the manikin offers a much more realistic feeling during the training of the resuscitation procedure than previously used ones, and, as an added value, the real-time monitoring of vital signals such as blood pressure and heart rate during resuscitation.

The new design incorporates a variety of sensors to measure the quality of resuscitation. For example, the jaw contains position sensors to monitor the opening of the airway, while blood pressure and flow sensors have been placed in the heart to measure the effectiveness and quality of the cardiac massage. The final integration of the artificial vascular system into the manikin still requires further miniaturization of the circulation system.

In a simulation training study, pediatric team leaders who wore a blindfold improved their leadership skills ratings by 11% over the course of 3 resuscitation scenarios, versus 5% for non-blindfolded leaders. Published in Frontiers in Pediatrics, the findings demonstrate a promising tool for improving training and outcomes in pediatric resuscitation. “Our study suggests that blindfolding the…

Will the China market recover to the levels of Europe and other regions, or will China drag China down Europe and other regions closer to its levels?

Rory Stewart, the former UK government minister and MP, said in this Rest Is Politics podcast that we faced a ten-year recession similar to the stagflation of the 1970s because of geopolitics and inflation. I worry that he might be right.

With increased precision, speed of service and reduced cost, 3D printing presents an opportunity to transform traditional healthcare and its delivery, and radiology is at the center of this new…

Until China steps away from its zero-COVID policies, which is very unlikely to happen at least for the rest of this year, local demand will remain under a lot of downward pressure. The latest ICIS data suggest a 3% fall in consumption in 2021.

Therefore, when we look at the annual average NWE PP injection grade price premiums over those in China, we need to ask the same questions as in the case of HDPE.

China’s PP demand could fall by as much as 4% this year, and even though it is a stretch as this is an unlikely outcome, China might end up being a net exporter of around 270,000 tonnes this year.

Malaysia’s Pengerang Refining and Petrochemical may come back on-stream this year, leading to Malaysia beginning the process of shifting toa significant net exporter from being a small net importer.

This process may have already begun, as the chart below, detailing monthly Free Delivered northwest Europe (NWE) high-density polyethylene (HDPE) injection grade price premiums and discounts over CFR China HDPE injection grade prices indicates (it is a similar story in the other grades of PE). The chart runs from when our price assessments began in January 2000 until July 2022.

At some point, I believe demand destruction resulting from the global inflation crisis will lead to a significant and long-term decline in container-freight rates.

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Further downward pressure is likely to be exerted on China’s HDPE market by the Common Prosperity economic reforms with the biggest negative impact on the real estate sector.

In a simulation training study, pediatric team leaders who wore a blindfold improved their leadership skills ratings by 11% over the course of 3 resuscitation scenarios, versus 5% for non-blindfolded…

The more likely outcome is that net imports fall to 2.4m tonnes as China’s self-sufficiency continues to increase on capacity additions. Chinese capacity is scheduled to increase by 12% in 2022 after a 13% increase in 2021.

Last year, US HDPE exports totalled 2.8m tonnes, down from 3.9m tonnes in 2020 on production problems. The latest 2022 US export data I have available is only for January-May, but when annualised (divided by five and multiplied by 12), this suggests full-year exports of 3.7m tonnes.

AGAIN, please don’t say I didn’t warn you. Last April, when the historic divergence between European and Chinese polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets began, I warned that it wouldn’t last forever. I said that European price premiums over China would eventually return to normal.

Each year, worldwide, approximately one million babies die during birth due to due to a shortage of oxygen that occurs during birth. Additionally, one million babies suffer consequences which vary, depending on the duration of oxygen deprivation, from minor neurological abnormalities to, unfortunately, irreparable brain damage. Direct resuscitation - opening the airway, ventilating the lungs and performing chest compressions - can minimize the consequences of suffocation through birth.

Add this to the zero-COVID polices in China, the disruptions caused by its attempts to build a largely new economic growth mode and the constant push for greater petrochemicals self-sufficiency, and we face very challenging times ahead.

Some sellers believed that customers’ stocks were low and that there would be a natural revival in demand when the holiday season ends in September. However, inflation and the energy crisis were major concerns with talk of inflation-driven demand destruction, the report added.

The 29 July ICIS Europe PE price report said: “Europe’s market was very depressed, facing a weak August after a weaker than hoped-for July. Players were waiting for the monomer to settle for a further idea of market movements in August. Converters were minimising inventories.”

But container spot freight rates had fallen significantly up until the middle of last month on both the Asia-to-Europe and Asia-to-the-US routes, according to this 17 July Freightwaves article.

Here are the actual European PP injection grade prices versus those in China. The decline in Europe in July was greater than  in China, again mirroring what occurred in HDPE.

‘3D printing the rib cage was a real challenge, an enormous effort that required months of work’, says Thielen. ‘I spent hours and hours identifying the borders of every single bone in the MRI images, slice by slice. Often, having the images analyzed automatically by an image software gave unsatisfactory results, so I had to restart from scratch and do everything manually’. A lot of attention was also paid to the 3D printing of the heart, a model consisting of four internal spaces with even four heart valves.

Neonatologists, gynecologists and midwives are currently training these skills on resuscitation manikins. Although the manikins should be replacements for the real child, there is little resemblance on the inside. ‘They have a purely mechanical design, which is optimized for massive production: cheap and indestructible’, explains Thielen. And, a mechanical internal construction, with squeaking springs and plastic plates, is surely not how humans are biologically composed. ‘When doctors practice using these manikins’, he wonders, ‘do they actually learn the right feeling? And, without measuring blood and air flow, can we determine the quality of the training?’

I obviously hope I am wrong. But it would be wise to prepare for this scenario as it surely cannot be dismissed given today’s extraordinary events.

The 29 July ICIS European PP report said: “The spot market is very quiet at the end of July as buyers aim to keep inventories low. There is very little demand expected in August due to the summer holiday period and economic woes”.

For his PhD project, Thielen designed and built a new resuscitation manikin, based on an MRI scan of a full-term infant. Using a 3D printer he made replicas of the bone structure - consisting of strong, flexible plastics - and molds of the heart, lungs, muscle, fat and skin tissue, in various soft silicone types. The entire manikin was printed down to the last detail.

China’s net import, or even net export position, is critical for global markets as China accounted for more than 40% of global net imports last year among the countries and regions that imported more than they exported. This was a far higher percentage than any other region.

We must then ask ourselves the question, when we look at the extraordinary divergence in annual NWE and China pricing trends detailed in the chart below, whether a return to long-term historic average premiums will happen.

The chart below shows monthly Free Delivered NWE PP injection grade premiums and discounts over CFR China injection grade since the ICIS price assessments began in November 2002 until July this year. It is a similar story in other commodity grades of PP. As with HDPE, premiums fell substantially in July 2022. As with HDPE again, NWE premiums soared from March 2021 onwards.

Will China, the world’s most important HDPE demand centre, and an increasingly important supply centre, drag Europe and other regions down to its levels? (other regions have seen a similar big jump in premiums over China)  Or will the China market increase closer to today’s levels in Europe and elsewhere?

Demand in the developing world ex-China among the non-resource exporting countries is being damaged by the strength of the US dollar and the food and energy crisis. I should add that this, of course, is also a problem for HDPE demand.

I see the former outcome more likely, given China’s economic problems and the global inflation crisis. If such an outcome were to  happen, we would need to consider the implications for European profitability.

Asia and Middle East exporters may therefore increasingly target Europe, especially if container-freight markets become longer. However, spot rates had risen since mid-July on port congestion in Europe and the US, said Xeneta in this 28 July article.

But Xeneta added in the same article: “July’s contract rate increases were the slowest since January, reflecting an easing of spot rates. Xeneta also noted lower demand, with volumes to and from Europe falling 3% and 6% respectively over the first five months of 2022.”

If this year’s net imports fell to 2.4m tonnes, this would be a million tonnes lower than in 2021, and no less than 3.7m tonnes lower than in 2020!

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Rapid first aid during cardiac arrest makes the difference between life and death. But what happens to the heart and the internal organs when people come running and begin to give well-meaning but…