If this year’s net imports fell to 2.4m tonnes, this would be a million tonnes lower than in 2021, and no less than 3.7m tonnes lower than in 2020!

Through a series of case studies, his presentation showed how knowledge of materials, processing knowledge, dimensional tolerances, thin walls, injection speed and assembly played into the design for micro-manufacturing (DfMM) process before components can be produced.

The more likely outcome is that net imports fall to 2.4m tonnes as China’s self-sufficiency continues to increase on capacity additions. Chinese capacity is scheduled to increase by 12% in 2022 after a 13% increase in 2021.

As Johnson sees it, a component or manufacturing part that weighs less than a gram is considered a candidate for micro-molding and can further be defined along three criteria:

We must then ask ourselves the question, when we look at the extraordinary divergence in annual NWE and China pricing trends detailed in the chart below, whether a return to long-term historic average premiums will happen.

Central to successful design for micro-molded components and parts is having a clear understanding of the end-user’s stated and unstated needs. That’s because producing components and devices from design parameters for small or micro parts come with a unique set of challenges and opportunities—and these are not typically associated with traditional injection molding techniques, argued Aaron Johnson, vice president of Marketing & Customer Strategy at Accumold, during a Nov. 30 Virtual Engineering Week presentation.

Micro-injection molding also enables a high level of customization and complexity, making it suitable for specialized and miniaturized applications in the medical devices and automotive industries, where manufacturers must produce millions of parts with consistent levels of quality, precision and reliability.

Accumold also connects clients and resin suppliers so they can explore different materials that may be suited to the requirements of a unique component. “The aim is to give clients manufacturer-ready components,” he said.

Demand in the developing world ex-China among the non-resource exporting countries is being damaged by the strength of the US dollar and the food and energy crisis. I should add that this, of course, is also a problem for HDPE demand.

Nowhere is this more evident than in the medical devices industry, where efforts to optimize form factors—smaller, faster, cheaper—are limited only by the ability to innovate. Medication delivery systems, point of care delivery systems, microfluidics and electronic components make up only a smattering of examples.

I obviously hope I am wrong. But it would be wise to prepare for this scenario as it surely cannot be dismissed given today’s extraordinary events.

Add this to the zero-COVID polices in China, the disruptions caused by its attempts to build a largely new economic growth mode and the constant push for greater petrochemicals self-sufficiency, and we face very challenging times ahead.

His colleagues might agree. “Some laws of physics like electrostatic induction, the triboelectric effect and Lenz Law can make a very small part not go where we need it to go, specifically, downward to the earth via gravity,” wrote his colleague Ron Baiotto in a company blog.

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Malaysia’s Pengerang Refining and Petrochemical may come back on-stream this year, leading to Malaysia beginning the process of shifting toa significant net exporter from being a small net importer.

In terms of geometry, there are basic questions about the mechanical needs that designers should ask: Is the design a moldable shape? Can the design hit the tolerances? Is there a way to open and close or eject the component from the mold? “Sometimes there’s the notion that because it’s small, it doesn’t need some of these [parameters], and yet, the traditional rules of injection molding still apply,” said Johnson.

Last year, US HDPE exports totalled 2.8m tonnes, down from 3.9m tonnes in 2020 on production problems. The latest 2022 US export data I have available is only for January-May, but when annualised (divided by five and multiplied by 12), this suggests full-year exports of 3.7m tonnes.

His employer, Accumold, offers tooling, molding, packaging and metrology. The company operates from a 15-acre campus near Des Moines, Iowa, where its climate-controlled facility is boasts five clean rooms. Parts and components manufactured here are commonly measured in microns; they range from micro-optic molded lens arrays and small mold pupil dilators to micro rotor pinions and micro molded gears, as well as some with micro features that may be molded in and around existing components.

Here are the actual European PP injection grade prices versus those in China. The decline in Europe in July was greater than  in China, again mirroring what occurred in HDPE.

A common query about micro-molding is whether it has any guidelines for micro-molding. A general guideline might include the following rules:

China’s PP demand could fall by as much as 4% this year, and even though it is a stretch as this is an unlikely outcome, China might end up being a net exporter of around 270,000 tonnes this year.

But Johnson noted that providing a set of rules can be limiting, particularly when the rules are based on principles intended for traditional injection molding. “The guidelines break down when you start to push the limits,” he said. “I asked one of our technology managers who’s been here almost 35 years: ‘What’s your guideline to give a customer on aspect ratio?’ He originally told me six to one. Then you could push him and he could say 10 to one, or eight to one—somewhere in that realm.”

The upshot, according to Johnson, is that designing micro-molded components is situational and designers who are bound strictly by a set of rules will stymie their own capability and creativity, which will restrict the outcomes. The one micro-molding design rule worth noting, he said, is to “start with your ideal…it really comes down to what you are ultimately trying to accomplish.”

The 29 July ICIS European PP report said: “The spot market is very quiet at the end of July as buyers aim to keep inventories low. There is very little demand expected in August due to the summer holiday period and economic woes”.

The expansion rate of miniaturized, high-precision engineering components debunks the claim that micro-molding is niche. Demand for wearable smart devices and implantable sensors enabled by small components with tight tolerances continues unabated.

Whereas injection molding is a process for producing parts by injecting molten material into a mold, micro-injection molding focuses on producing small, high-precision parts and components with micron tolerances. In both cases, the process involves injecting molten plastic into the cavities of a steel mold. Once cooled, the parts are ejected.

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Consider PEEK (polyetheretherketone) as an example. Commonly used in implantable devices, this material is 30% glass fiber reinforced and pelletized for injection molding. The downside to using it is that it cannot fill ultra-thin areas. The same holds true for Ultem, another durable thermoplastic used in micro-optics applications, and a go-to for aerospace and automotive manufacturing.

This process may have already begun, as the chart below, detailing monthly Free Delivered northwest Europe (NWE) high-density polyethylene (HDPE) injection grade price premiums and discounts over CFR China HDPE injection grade prices indicates (it is a similar story in the other grades of PE). The chart runs from when our price assessments began in January 2000 until July 2022.

Johnson pointed out that design engineers are often able to design innovative products on screen, but that it does not necessarily translate in the molding process. “A design at the micro scale requires careful attention to what otherwise might not be a big deal for larger parts,” he said. “You can design things in CAD that you cannot mold.”

I see the former outcome more likely, given China’s economic problems and the global inflation crisis. If such an outcome were to  happen, we would need to consider the implications for European profitability.

China’s net import, or even net export position, is critical for global markets as China accounted for more than 40% of global net imports last year among the countries and regions that imported more than they exported. This was a far higher percentage than any other region.

But Xeneta added in the same article: “July’s contract rate increases were the slowest since January, reflecting an easing of spot rates. Xeneta also noted lower demand, with volumes to and from Europe falling 3% and 6% respectively over the first five months of 2022.”

And, rather than abandoning an idea that seems too complicated, Johnson’s advice is to discuss it with an expert micro molder. Understanding the material properties and the experience of matching the material with the appropriate geometry can make all the difference, he said.

As Machine Design’s content lead, Rehana Begg is tasked with elevating the voice of the design and multi-disciplinary engineer in the face of digital transformation and engineering innovation. Begg has more than 24 years of editorial experience and has spent the past decade in the trenches of industrial manufacturing, focusing on new technologies, manufacturing innovation and business. Her B2B career has taken her from corporate boardrooms to plant floors and underground mining stopes, covering everything from automation & IIoT, robotics, mechanical design and additive manufacturing to plant operations, maintenance, reliability and continuous improvement. Begg holds an MBA, a Master of Journalism degree, and a BA (Hons.) in Political Science. She is committed to lifelong learning and feeds her passion for innovation in publishing, transparent science and clear communication by attending relevant conferences and seminars/workshops.

AGAIN, please don’t say I didn’t warn you. Last April, when the historic divergence between European and Chinese polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP) markets began, I warned that it wouldn’t last forever. I said that European price premiums over China would eventually return to normal.

According to Johnson, OEMS interested in procuring micro-molded components tend to have pain points that revolve around two aspects: geometry and scale.

The 29 July ICIS Europe PE price report said: “Europe’s market was very depressed, facing a weak August after a weaker than hoped-for July. Players were waiting for the monomer to settle for a further idea of market movements in August. Converters were minimising inventories.”

Further downward pressure is likely to be exerted on China’s HDPE market by the Common Prosperity economic reforms with the biggest negative impact on the real estate sector.

Asia and Middle East exporters may therefore increasingly target Europe, especially if container-freight markets become longer. However, spot rates had risen since mid-July on port congestion in Europe and the US, said Xeneta in this 28 July article.

Rory Stewart, the former UK government minister and MP, said in this Rest Is Politics podcast that we faced a ten-year recession similar to the stagflation of the 1970s because of geopolitics and inflation. I worry that he might be right.

Until China steps away from its zero-COVID policies, which is very unlikely to happen at least for the rest of this year, local demand will remain under a lot of downward pressure. The latest ICIS data suggest a 3% fall in consumption in 2021.

The chart below shows monthly Free Delivered NWE PP injection grade premiums and discounts over CFR China injection grade since the ICIS price assessments began in November 2002 until July this year. It is a similar story in other commodity grades of PP. As with HDPE, premiums fell substantially in July 2022. As with HDPE again, NWE premiums soared from March 2021 onwards.

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Will the China market recover to the levels of Europe and other regions, or will China drag China down Europe and other regions closer to its levels?

Will China, the world’s most important HDPE demand centre, and an increasingly important supply centre, drag Europe and other regions down to its levels? (other regions have seen a similar big jump in premiums over China)  Or will the China market increase closer to today’s levels in Europe and elsewhere?

At some point, I believe demand destruction resulting from the global inflation crisis will lead to a significant and long-term decline in container-freight rates.

Producing the highest-quality part requires understanding potential flaws that could affect its application, Johnson said. These details should be a part of the design for micro molding (DfMM) process at the beginning of every project. In essence, at Accumold, the DfMM process includes connecting the client with a project engineer, mold designer and a quality engineer who walk clients through the steps of the process. A considerable amount of time is spent on the front end of projects as a way to fully understand clients’ needs and requirements, he said.

But container spot freight rates had fallen significantly up until the middle of last month on both the Asia-to-Europe and Asia-to-the-US routes, according to this 17 July Freightwaves article.

China’s HDPE capacity is due to  increase by 22% this year. A further 10% increase is scheduled for 2023. World-scale plants are also due on-stream in Malaysia and Vietnam this year and in 2023.

When a client specifies a particular material in order to meet an environmental condition, the geometry will need to be adapted to match that choice. In some instances, the processing properties of the material can make or break a project, Johnson said.

Some mechanical properties are inherent in the material, which is usually a starting point for design, said Johnson. In material selection, criteria such as biocompatibility, heat deflection, wear patterns or flexibility are important considerations. Accumold works with common thermoplastic materials, including PEEK, Ultem, glass-filled Nylons, and other medical grade and attenuated materials.

Some sellers believed that customers’ stocks were low and that there would be a natural revival in demand when the holiday season ends in September. However, inflation and the energy crisis were major concerns with talk of inflation-driven demand destruction, the report added.

Therefore, when we look at the annual average NWE PP injection grade price premiums over those in China, we need to ask the same questions as in the case of HDPE.